Probability Review of Basic Concepts ppt课件


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Probability Review of Basic Concepts ppt课件内容预览:Construct and interpret a contingency tableFrequencies,relative frequencies cumulative relative frequenciesDetermine the probability of an event.Construct and interpret a probability tree with sequential events.Use Bayes’ Theorem to revise a probability.Determine the number of combinations or permutations of n objects r at a time.Chapter 5- KeyTermsExperimentSample spaceEventProbabilityOddsContingency tableVenn diagramUnion of eventsIntersection of eventspptComplementMutually exclusive eventsExhaustive eventsMarginal probabilityJoint probabilityConditional probabilityIndependent eventsTree diagramCountingPermutationsCombinationsChapter 5- KeyConceptsThe probability of a single event falls between 0and 1.The probability of the complement of event A,written A’,isP(A’)=1–P(A)The law of large numbers: Over a large number of trials,the relative frequency with which an event occurs will approach the probability of its occurrence for a single trial.Chapter 5- KeyConceptsOdds vs.probabilityIf the probability event A occurs is ,then the odds in favor of event A occurring are a to b – a.Example: If the probability it will rain tomorrow is 20,then the odds it will rain are 20to (100–20),or 20to 80,or 1to 4.Example: If the odds an event will occur are 3to 2,the probability it will occur isChapter 5- KeyConceptsMutually exclusive eventsEvents A and B aremutually exclusive if both cannot occur at the same time,that is,if their intersection is empty. In a Venn diagram,mutually exclusive events are usually shown as nonintersecting areas. If intersecting areas are shown,they are empty.Intersections versusUnionsIntersections -“BothAnd”The intersection of A and B and C is also written .All events or characteristics occur simultaneously for all elements contained in an intersection.Unions -“EitherOr”The union of A or B or C is also writtenAt least one of a number of possible events occur at the same time.Working with Unions andIntersectionsThe general rule of addition:P(A or B)= P(A)+ P(B)– P(A andB)is always true. When events A and B are mutually exclusive,the last term in the rule, P(A and B),will become zero by definition.Three Kinds ofProbabilitiesSimple or marginal probabilityThe probability that a single given event will occur. The typical expression isP(A).Joint or compound probabilityThe probability that two or more events occur. The typical expression is P(A andB).Conditional probabilityThe probability that an event, A,occurs given that another event, B,has already happened. The typical expression isP(A|B).The Contingency Table: AnExampleProblem 5.15: The following table represents gas well completions during 1986in North and SouthAmerica.DD’Dry NotDry TotalsN NorthAmerica 14,131 31,575 45,706N’ South America 4042,5632,967Totals 14,535 34,138 48,673Example, Problem 5.15DD’Dry NotDry TotalsN NorthAmerica 14,131 31,575 45,706N’ South America 4042,5632,967Totals 14,535 34,138 48,6731. What is P(N)?-1. Simple probability:45,70648,673
课件关键字:Probability Review of Basic Co。

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